Economic cascades, tipping points, and the costs of a business-as-usual approach to COVID-19

Decisions to shutdown economic activities to control the spread of COVID-19 early in the pandemic remain controversial, with negative impacts including high rates of unemployment. Here we present a counterfactual scenario for the state of California in which the economy remained open and active during the pandemic's first year. The exercise provides a baseline against which to compare actual levels of job losses. We developed an economic-epidemiological mathematical model to simulate outbreaks of COVID-19 in ten large Californian socio-economic areas. Results show that job losses are an unavoidable consequence of the pandemic, because even in an open economy, debilitating illness and death among workers drive economic downturns. Although job losses in the counterfactual scenario were predicted to be less than those actually experienced, the cost would have been the additional death or disablement of tens of thousands of workers. Furthermore, whereas an open economy would have favoured populous, services-oriented coastal areas in terms of employment, the opposite would have been true of smaller inland areas and those with relatively larger agricultural sectors. Thus, in addition to the greater cost in lives, the benefits of maintaining economic activity would have been unequally distributed, exacerbating other realized social inequities of the disease's impact. Copyright © 2023 Roopnarine, Abarca, Goodwin and Russack.

Bored: A Pandemic of Domestic Violence

Alarm spreads among potential victims of domestic violence as cases multiply during the confinement required by COVID19, and authorities face the growing frustration of not knowing how to respond. The question of what to do begs the question of why the lockdown increases domestic violence. Loss of jobs, alcohol, and psychological stress are reasonable answers;but they are predictable and don't suggest new approaches for remedy. This essay considers an unsuspected if obvious trigger of violence at home. Boredom. It is a stressor that becomes intolerable as the pandemic lockdown continues. Since boredom is a volatile condition associated with the lack of engagement, and since boredom is resolved either creatively or violently, an evident program for primary prevention would be to provide disgruntled and potentially aggressive intimate partners with engaging activities. These activities address a responsibility of the State. When the State turns homes into places of involuntary confinement, it levies serious limitations on a range of human rights. Therefore, the State's obligation to address risks, including boredom, is a corollary to restricting freedom of movement. Perhaps the strategy to provide programs will face objections and skepticism. Why should potential perpetrators of violence be beneficiaries of pleasurable programs? And how can pleasure be a remedy when it carries a stigma of irresponsibility or sin? But a practical response to the spike in domestic violence will have to overcome this irrational stigma to become more strategic than moralizing (Sommer, 2014). We should address the spiral of aggression in ways that are effective, not reactive. © Copyright 2021 Springer Publishing Company, LLC.